Valuation Comps

BLUEPRINT — every business spun up from the factory inherits this template. Instance data lives in .invisible/ventures/{slug}/finance/. Never hardcode a business name, currency, or specific comparable in this file.

Founders either over-ask (kill the round) or under-ask (leave money on the table). Valuation is the most contested number in any raise. This template triangulates from three sources: public comps, precedent transactions, and DCF cross-check. The goal is a defensible range, not a single number.

Business Alignment

Question	Answer
Venture name	[instance: name]
Raise stage	pre-seed / seed / Series A / token / M&A
Target valuation range	$X – $Y
Conviction	HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW / NONE
Who owns this analysis?	[valuation-analyst agent / fractional CFO]

Three Triangulation Sources

No single method is right. Cross-check across three.

Method	What it measures	When it leads
Public comps	What the market pays for similar companies today	Stage has public equivalents
Precedent transactions	What acquirers actually paid	Late-stage, M&A context
DCF cross-check	What the business is worth based on future cash flows	Any stage — keeps the other two honest

Public Comps

List 5–10 public companies in the same business model. Not the same industry — the same shape of revenue.

Company	Revenue	Revenue multiple	Growth rate	Gross margin	Why comparable
[name]	$	x	%	%	[model match reason]

Trim the tails: drop the highest and lowest 20% to get a defensible multiple range.

Precedent Transactions

Last 24 months. Acquisitions of companies at similar stage and model.

Target	Acquirer	Deal size	Target revenue	Multiple paid	Date

Read the story: why did the acquirer pay this multiple? Distress sale, strategic fit, competitive bidding war, desperate buyer? The multiple carries context.

DCF Cross-Check

Build a 5-year projection with terminal value. Discount at stage-appropriate rate.

Input	Range	Notes
5-year revenue forecast	[from financial-modeler]	Reconcile to pitch deck
Free cash flow margin	[range]	Exit margin assumption
Terminal growth rate	2–3%	Not the growth rate — the terminal
Discount rate	15–30%	Stage-adjusted (early stage higher)
Terminal multiple	10–15x FCF	Or industry median

DCF trap: wide ranges in early-stage assumptions produce wide valuations. Use DCF to sanity-check the other two methods, not to set price.

Pre/Post-Money Bridge

Line	$
Pre-money valuation
New investment
Post-money valuation
New investor ownership %
Existing shareholders ownership %
Option pool expansion %
Effective founder dilution

409A (If Applicable)

For US-registered companies issuing employee options. Separate from fundraising valuation — typically 20–40% lower, reflecting common-stock discount.

Parameter	Notes
409A provider	[third party]
Fair market value of common	Lower than preferred
Update frequency	Every 12 months or after material event
Material events	Primary raise, acquisition offer, major customer loss

Sanity Checks

Before stating a number:

• Three methods triangulate to an overlapping range
• The bottom of the range still lets founders build the company (not forced to take a down round at plan)
• The top of the range has real comparable support (not aspirational)
• The multiple reflects growth rate — 30% growth ≠ 300% growth valuation
• Counter-thesis stated: what would make this worth half?

Receipt

On completion, valuation-analyst writes a receipt to .invisible/context/receipts/ with:

• factory_instance_id = parent factory
• business_id = this venture slug
• phase = finance
• task_id = finance.5
• Primary artefact = .invisible/ventures/{slug}/finance/valuation.md

Context

• Cap Table — dilution math at the chosen valuation
• Unit Economics · Cash Flow · ROI Analysis — DCF inputs
• Pitch Deck — where the number gets defended
• Investor Map — who agrees with this range

Questions

• If all three methods disagree, which do you trust — and why?
• What's the lowest valuation you'd accept, and what would you give up to protect the higher number?
• Which comparable in your list is the one investors will push back on? Have you rehearsed the answer?