When does the money run out if nothing changes? When does it break even if everything goes right?
Business Alignment
| Question | Answer |
|---|
| What venture is this for? | [name] |
| What's the starting cash position? | $[X] |
| What's the monthly burn before revenue? | $[X] |
| What conviction level are growth assumptions? | HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW / NONE |
| What's the kill signal? | [runway < X months with no traction] |
Growth Assumptions
State each assumption with conviction. No number without a reason.
| Assumption | Value | Basis | Conviction |
|---|
| Month 1 customers | [X] | [how acquired] | |
| Monthly customer growth rate | [X]% | [channel, evidence] | |
| Monthly churn rate | [X]% | [retention data or comparable] | |
| ARPU (avg revenue per user) | $[X] | [from unit economics] | |
| Monthly fixed costs | $[X] | [itemized below] | |
| Monthly variable costs per customer | $[X] | [from unit economics] | |
Fixed Costs (Monthly)
| Cost | Amount | Category | Can cut? |
|---|
| Infrastructure (hosting, DB, CI) | $[X] | Tech | |
| Subscriptions (tools, APIs) | $[X] | Tech | |
| Contractors / wages | $[X] | People | |
| Marketing spend | $[X] | Growth | |
| Legal / compliance | $[X] | Ops | |
| Other | $[X] | | |
| Total fixed | $[X] | | |
12-Month Projection
| Month | Customers | Revenue | COGS | Gross Profit | OpEx | Net Cash | Cumulative |
|---|
| 1 | | $0 | $0 | $0 | $[X] | -$[X] | -$[X] |
| 2 | | | | | | | |
| 3 | | | | | | | |
| 4 | | | | | | | |
| 5 | | | | | | | |
| 6 | | | | | | | |
| 7 | | | | | | | |
| 8 | | | | | | | |
| 9 | | | | | | | |
| 10 | | | | | | | |
| 11 | | | | | | | |
| 12 | | | | | | | |
Key Milestones
| Milestone | Month | What triggers it | Conviction |
|---|
| First dollar | [X] | [specific event] | |
| Break-even month | [X] | Revenue = OpEx | |
| Positive cumulative | [X] | Cumulative turns positive | |
| Runway exhausted | [X] | If no revenue at all | |
Scenarios
| Scenario | Growth Rate | Break-even | 12-month Cash | Probability |
|---|
| Bear | [X]% | Month [X] | -$[X] | [X]% |
| Base | [X]% | Month [X] | $[X] | [X]% |
| Bull | [X]% | Month [X] | $[X] | [X]% |
Kill Criteria
| Signal | Threshold | Action |
|---|
| Runway below [X] months | No revenue traction | Pivot or pause |
| Growth rate below [X]% for 3 months | Stalling | Change channel or offer |
| Churn above [X]% for 2 months | Product-market fit failing | Stop acquiring, fix retention |
| CAC rising while LTV flat | Economics degrading | Cut paid, double down on organic |
Questions
At what point does optimism become dishonesty — and how do you tell the difference in a projection?
- Which month is the most dangerous — and what's your plan for surviving it?
- If bear case is most likely, does the venture still deserve resources?
- What's the cheapest experiment that would move a LOW conviction to MEDIUM?