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The Business Cycle

The business cycle is at the core of the Everything Code.

It's crucial to recognize where we are in the cycle, as it drives asset performance.

  • Introduction to the Business Cycle Framework
  • The Flaws of Traditional Economics
  • Understanding Cycles: Business Cycle and Secular Cycles
  • The Role of Demographics in the Business Cycle
  • Positive Demographics in Emerging Markets
  • Long-Term Equity Market Cycle
  • Commodity Super Cycle
  • Debt Super Cycle and Its Impact
  • Debt Problems in the West
  • Inflation and Deflation in the Debt Cycle
  • The Importance of the Business Cycle in Investment
  • Business Cycle vs Recession Indicators
  • The ISM and Its Importance in Forecasting
  • The Legacy of Greenspan and Suppressed Volatility
  • ISM vs US GDP: Business Cycle Correlation
  • ISM vs World GDP: The Global Impact of the US Business Cycle
  • Long-Term Trends: Secular Cycle and Business Cycle
  • ISM and S&P 500 Correlation
  • Understanding the Business Cycle’s Influence on Equities
  • Lumber and Copper Prices vs ISM
  • Oil Prices and the Business Cycle
  • Credit Spreads and ISM Correlation
  • Bond Yields and the Business Cycle
  • CPI and Inflation Forecasting with ISM
  • The Short-Term Economic Cycle: City Economic Surprise Index (CESI)
  • Forecasting Future Business Cycles with CESI and ISM
  • Conclusion: Understanding the Business Cycle for Investment Success
  • The Importance of Behavioural Science in Economic Forecasting