Skip to main content

Poker

Play the game to gain perspective of which direction the world is turning and how to position yourself in it.

Mantra

Everything is a matter of perspective

Decision Making​

Play poker to practice optimal decision making processes under pressure and uncertainty.

  1. Poker is a better metaphor for decision making in life than chess, because poker involves making decisions with incomplete information and an element of luck, similar to real-world decisions. In chess, you have complete information and luck plays no role.
  2. We need to think probabilistically when making decisions, not in absolutes. Expressing confidence in percentage terms (e.g. 75% sure) enables better decision making than false certainty. Poker trains this skill.
  3. Judging decisions solely by their outcomes, known as "resulting", is a mistake. In poker and life, you can make the right decision based on probabilities and limited information, but still have a bad outcome due to luck. The quality of the decision process matters more than the result.
  4. The "decision matrix" has four quadrants - good decision/good outcome, good decision/bad outcome, bad decision/good outcome, bad decision/bad outcome. We tend to focus only on the bad outcomes, but the other 75% also provide valuable learning opportunities.
  5. Avoiding bad outcomes at all costs due to "resulting" leads to overly conservative decision making by individuals and leaders. It prevents the bold but wise decisions needed for progress and innovation in fields like business, sports, and medicine.
  6. The first step to becoming a good decision maker is recognizing the difference between decisions and outcomes. Next is having a framework for analyzing decisions at multiple levels - from what happened, why it happened, how it fits your overall strategy, to how it impacts your decision process itself.
  7. "Backcasting" - working backward from a desired future state to determine what decisions are needed to get there - is a powerful technique. Picturing the destination makes the path clearer. Pre-mortems also help by projecting forward to envision how a plan could fail.

Systems Engineering​

Developing algorithms to size your commitments is the most valuable investment you can make.

  • Scarce Data
  • Pattern Recognition
  • Best Practices
  • Performance Triggers

Life Lessons​

Here are some key life and business lessons that can be learned from playing poker:

  1. Risk Management
  2. Strategic Thinking
  3. Control Emotions
  4. Adapt and Adjust
  5. Learn and Evolve

Risk Management​

Poker teaches you how to make decisions under conditions of risk and uncertainty. In poker and in life, you often have to act without complete information.

  • Analyze situations probabilistically and consider a range of possible outcomes before making decisions.
  • Have the courage to take calculated risks when the odds are in your favour
  • Avoid risking too much on any single hand or decision. Manage your bankroll/resources carefully.

Strategic Thinking​

Poker rewards strategic and disciplined thinking. Success requires developing a sound overall game plan.

  • Think several moves ahead and try to anticipate your opponents' actions
  • Balance your ranges - don't be too predictable in your behavior
  • Exploit your opponents' weaknesses and tendencies

Control Emotions​

Poker quickly punishes emotional decision making. Maintaining a calm, rational mindset is crucial.

  • Avoid going on tilt (becoming frustrated and playing poorly) after a bad beat
  • Have patience and don't force the action. Wait for profitable opportunities.
  • Keep your ego in check. Don't let wins go to your head or losses destroy your confidence.

Adapt and Adjust​

Constantly adapt and adjust to changing game dynamics the players, stack sizes, table image, etc.

  • Maintain flexibility in your thinking and strategies as situations evolve
  • Be willing to quickly abandon strategies that aren't working
  • Pay attention to details and pick up on subtle changes and patterns

Learn and Evolve​

The best poker players are always striving to learn and improve. They critically analyze their results.

  • Review key hands and decisions after each session to find your leaks
  • Seek out new knowledge from books, training sites, and better players
  • Test out new strategies and tactics. Incorporate what works into your game.

Texas Hold'em​

Sizing conviction to your predictions.