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Predictions for 2023

A summary of analyst comments that resonated at the turn of the new year.

Summary: NFT driven loyalty the big underlying use case with deep innovation at wallet level.

Very competitive at infrastructure level, consumer use cases and data will prove out the right strategy.

Macro​

Fed will keep going. Money will tighten, the bear will continue through the first quarter at least.

Need to wait for the impact of housing losses to hit.

Prediction: crypto to trend away from being bundled in with big tech risk management profile.

More

Employment​

Reality: Elon showed the way at Twitter. Tech companies transitioning to value driven business models.

Hard times ahead for those that don't have the ability to build/sell to adapt to new work environment where money is tight and automation is replacing human resources.

  • Meta, Twitter, Stripe, Snap and more have axed more than 10% of their positions.
  • An estimated 150k tech jobs were axed over 2022

Prediction: FAANG Developers will join Web3 movement and accelerate eating away from traditional tech markets.

Web3 Overview​

Positive engagement through web3 value proposition education during onboarding experience is fundamental to success across every business model to convert mindsets.

Reality: Web3 projects need to connect people with each other through shared purpose to create loyal communitities that form an ecosystem for sustained growth.

Prediction: Web3 leaders need to concentrate on delivering/sharing value.

  • NFTs are the new improved CRM for marketing

Identity​

Reputation will precede you, the best cookie ever!? What about downsides?

Regulation​

Need to wait to see what impact FTX's downfall has on providing regulators an excuse to over-reach taking control.

Predictions:

  • Unlikely to have consensus between Dems and Republicans so expectation that no harmful legislation.
  • Potential for UK/Europe to lead the way into DeFi.

DAOs​

Still a big work in progress with big potential.

  • Working for a DAO is not rewarding?
  • Slow decision
  • Decision Expertise

Future: Umbrella DAOs with reputations based on marketing and track record of success, will create/manage service orientated DAOs.

  • Multi-DAO world
  • Innovation ahead

Reviews:

DeFi​

DeFi is still drop in water compared to traditional markets and still very early in the game.

Potential headwinds due to Regulation, integrity, credibility, MEV.

Future: Protocols to prove out concepts on L2s and gain mindshare then look to optimise experience and ability to control revenue by exploring app-chain strategy.

Digital Goods​

Use Cases for collectable NFTs.

Reality: Vast open field of opportunity particularly with Phygital assets.

Future:

  • Trillions of assets to flood the market
  • Marketplaces need to focus on their niche
  • Opensea to lose marketshare
  • Music, Gaming and Phygital to serve as web3 trojan horse.

Reports:

Gaming​

Reality: AAA hit making strategy is risky and over crowded. Better to experiment fast and light and keep powder dry to learn from others mistakes.

Games that focus on building ecosystem that supports it's tribe better that hitmaking strategy.

Future: Wallets will enable interopability supported by logic that enables like for like asset transfers.

Tokenomics​

Reality: Become scammy? better to avoid hype and focus on delivering proven value, then explain that.

Future: Build project with realworld value first then explain the economics.

Infrastructure​

Reality: Overcrowded and now under funded, expect mergers.

Future: General consensus is that Ethereum is safest bet. Arbitrum currently the strongest L2 bet...?

  • Polygon strongly placed if tech can backup Business Development success?
  • Projects like Stepn might find greater value in going App chain route, but too early to judge pros and cons vs zkEVM L2s.
  • Cosmos needs better sales pitch. Strength is control of validators.
  • Avalanche might have good niche with subnets (AWS news)
  • Too early to know what will happen with Sam's projects.

Reports:

Projects​

Projects to watch

  • Trojan Horse Onboarding - Starbucks, Reddit, AAA Games
  • Re-education
  • Marketing | NFT Driven Loyalty
  • UX | Fat Wallets
  • Account Abstraction | Visa
  • Tokenomics | Ethereum and MEV
  • Infrastructure | zkEVMs
  • Infrastructure |Solana Mobile

Analyst Predictions​

What are you bullish on for 2023?

Gaming Analysts​

Schema​

Super Forecasters​