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Decision Making

Life is a constant stream of decisions. Try to make sure your future self thanks you for the decisions that you made today.

Confidence is believing your systems will enable you to find a way.

Feedback Loops​

Good decisions come from clear thinking about how to prioritise and methodically solve problems. Master your inner-loop: where should you invest your time and energy for optimal positive effect?

  1. Understand Value
  2. Focus Intentions
  3. Build Belief
  4. Control Outcomes
  5. Reflection

Maintain a decision journal to improve your process and onboard others faster and better.

Understand Value​

Know exactly what you value and why so that you can chart progress: Qualitative, Quantitative, Objective, Past, Present Reality

  • Intangibles
  • Assets
  • Resources
  • Metrics

Focus Intentions​

Imagine the future and clarify intentions to shape that reality.

Build Belief​

Build confidence with stories backed by facts of where you come from, why you are here, where you are going and how you are going to get there.

  • Trends
  • Convictions
  • Predictions
  • Critical Path

Control Outcomes​

Stay on the right path:

Flow of Thought​

Every decision is an investment in your future.

  1. Identify the problem or opportunity. What is the decision that needs to be made? What are the goals and objectives?
  2. Gather information. What information is relevant to the decision? What are the different options available? What are the potential risks and benefits of each option?
  3. Analyze the information. Weigh the pros and cons of each option. Consider the different factors that are important to you and your stakeholders.
  4. Make a decision. Choose the option that you believe is best.
  5. Implement the decision. Take action to put the decision into effect.
  6. Monitor and evaluate the decision. Track the results of the decision and make adjustments as needed.

Decision Checklist​

  • Probabilistic thinking is crucial: Thinking in terms of probabilities rather than certainties allows for better decision making under uncertainty.
  • Avoid resulting and hindsight bias: Don't judge decisions solely based on outcomes, as this can lead to faulty conclusions.
  • Update beliefs with new information: Use a Bayesian approach to incorporate new data and adjust probabilities accordingly.
  • Seek disconfirming evidence: Actively look for information that challenges your current beliefs to avoid confirmation bias.
  • Communicate openly: Discuss decisions and thought processes with others to gain different perspectives and identify potential blind spots.
  • Be open to feedback: Willingly accept and incorporate constructive criticism to improve decision-making processes.
  • Consider multiple scenarios: Use scenario planning to prepare for various potential outcomes.
  • Recognize the limits of prediction: Understand that perfect prediction is impossible, especially for complex systems and rare events.
  • Avoid tribal thinking: Be aware of how group identity can influence decision making and limit objectivity.
  • Use reflective listening: Practice active listening to better understand others' perspectives and gather more information.
  • Focus on flow: Avoid creating eddy currents that hinder the flow of progress:
      1. Don't push too hard beyond available capacity and capability
      1. Eliminate obstacles and waste
      1. Re-engineer more direct routes
tip

Always maintain a decision journal to improve decision making, communication, and collective wisdom.

Attachments​