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Probability

What is the critical path to navigate the idea maze to accelerate positive change?

Knowing the right action to take and having the capability and fortitude take that action are two very different things.

Coach teamwork to ensure people can execute decisions as expected.

What Next?​

Collect perspectives on the most important job to be done.

  1. What is is the best use of your time and energy?
  2. Do you believe expected outcomes are possible?
  3. Have you calculated that projected outcomes are worth the effort?
  4. Are those outcomes aligned with your value system?

Balance purpose with priorities to navigate the critical path. Use purpose to set the north star for general direction.

Address the Pain​

Address the pain: hunt out the root cause problems.

  • What is the most valuable problem to solve?
  • Do you have processes to solve this problem?
  • Do you have the platform to solve the problem?
  • Do you have the team to own this problem?
  • Is the timing right?

SOTAP Analysis.

  • Subjective
  • Objective
  • Analysis
  • Treatment
  • Plan

Disagree then Commit​

Schedule dedicated time to honestly reflect and communicate where the true problems lie.

When you document clear thought paths to persuade yourself of your decision, you can resuse that rhetoric to persuade others.

Mantra

Take care of the downsides and the upsides will take care of themselves

Invest in systems that make it easier to fall into a pit of success.

Timing​

how strong is the appetite for a challenge?

  • Is it time to defend or attack?
  • Consolidate, or take risks?
tip

Aim for balance with priorities

In alignment with Strategic Goals, Platform and Skillset what needs to be prioritised to grow with optimal flow over the next sprint | season | quarter?

Move to decision log on completion to track history.

Evaluate beliefs in the vision and mission.

Do we have ability and the hunger to accept the challenge at this point in time?

Perform projects in six weeks cycles. Six weeks is half a quarter but also a good length of time to measure impact.

  • Appetite: Is the anticipated reward worth the effort?
  • Values: Action aligns with principles?
  • Assets: Do we have the necessary foundations?
  • Talent: Do we have the right team?
  • Belief: How strong is our belief in this mission?
  • Vision: Is this what we are in the game for?

Risk​

What risks do you need to protect yourself from?

  • What faults or limitations have you overlooked?
  • Are there any problems your actions might create? How can you mitigate these?
  • How vulnerable to external markets?

Reward​

Who how when with what for how long?

  • Customer value creation?
  • Interval value creation?
  • Partner value creation?

Risk​

Risk management strategy.

  • Timing
  • Protocol Risk
  • Counterparty Risk
  • Exchange Risk

RATs​

Riskiest Assumption Testing

  • What is the riskiest assumption?
  • How can the path to failure be recognised as fast as possible?
  • When assessing success and failure what decisions do we agree to in advance?

Timing​

Too early, too late?

Web3 Code is Law​

The increase of trading digital assets in web3 will demand that the masses will need to understand the fundamentals of risk analysis to protect their wealth.

Code is law until logic is hacked. Bridges are in the early stages of development and the optimal bridge design has not yet been discovered.

Interacting with any type of bridge carries risk:

Smart Contract Risk​

The risk of a bug in the code that can cause user funds to be lost

Technology Risk​

Software failure, buggy code, human error, spam, and malicious attacks can possibly disrupt user operations

Moreover, since trusted bridges add trust assumptions, they carry additional risks such as:

Censorship Risk​

Bridge operators can theoretically stop users from transferring their assets using the bridge Custodial Risk — bridge operators can collude to steal the users' funds

User's funds are at risk if:

  • there is a bug in the smart contract
  • the user makes an error
  • the underlying blockchain is hacked
  • the bridge operators have malicious intent in a trusted bridge
  • the bridge gets hacked

It is easier to build complex solutions by chaining together smaller and more easily understood functional components.

Schema​

Schema​